The Iraq Paradigm

As I'm sure all of my readers know, events in Israel have rapidly been escalating from a constant, low-intensity conflict to all out war. Israeli troops and armor are rolling into Gaza in force, and it looks like Operation Summer Rains will be a lengthy and bloody process.

This sudden deterioration has been triggered by two things. First, the Hamas government's inaction in the face of Israeli demands to halt daily Qassam fire on Israeli towns, and secondly (and most proximally), the attack on an IDF post in Green Line Israel, and the subsequent kidnapping of Corporal Gilad Shalit. The kidnapping was carried out by the PRC (and umbrella terror group) and the Hamas military wing, and has been the first successful kidnapping of a soldier since 1994 (though the lynching back in the beginning of the intafada sort of counts, I guess).

Since the kidnapping of Shalit, two other Israelis have been kidnapped: one, a 18-year old student who tried hitchhiking his way home in the West Bank, and (probably) an ill 62-year old man from Rishon Letzion. Though this all comes at once, the threat of kidnapping has been a serious one for some time now. For months, IDF intelligence and the Shin Bet have been warning that the Palestinian terror groups were trying very assiduously to kidnap Israelis as a way of leverage over the government, and to enable the release of important security prisoners (ie terrorists).

Why this sudden focus on kidnapping? It's been tried before by the Palestinians, but it has rarely been pursued so assiduously. First of all, Israel set a dangerous precedent a few years back in the Tenenbaum case, where a corrupt Israeli businessman and three dead soldiers who had been held in Lebanon were exchanged for the release of hundreds of detainees in Israeli prisons. More importantly, I think, is the rise of hostage-taking as the method of choice among Iraqi insurgents to bring the West to its knees. (Though it is not reported on too much in the Western media any more, abductions of Westerners and Iraqi government employees has become a matter of course in Iraq.)

Given the ultimate premium Israel places on the lives and bodies of its citizens, the Palestinians wisely thought that adapting Iraqi tactics would give them unprecedented leverage against the 'occupiers'. After all, the West Bank PRC has already threatened to 'butcher' the 18-year old student (Eliyahu Asheri) if Israel does not immediately withdraw from its military offensive in the Gaza Strip... clearly hearkening back to the language and actions of Iraqi hostage-takers.

Now here's the million dollar question: will this tactic work? I would like to suggest that it will be a complete and utter failure, and may have been one of the most foolish mistakes the Palestinian terror groups (particularly Hamas) have ever made.

Israel has adequate countermeasures, whereas the Iraqi situation is much tougher to regulate
Israel is already working on completing plans to 'seal off' most of the Palestinian population from access to the Israeli population. It's a simple matter, then, to revoke all of the remaining work permits, close the border, and sit tight. Of course, the WB security fence will need to be completed first, but that's in the process. I doubt that the latter two kidnappings could have occurred if the WB barrier was complete.

Of course, this does not address attacks like the one that captured Corporal Shalit. The tunnelling problem is one the IDF is still addressing, but I'm confident they will be able to develop adequate countermeasures to this sort of attack in the future.

More importantly, the entire milieu of Iraq is different than in the Israeli territories. In Iraq, the US is dealing with a mostly hostile population, is seriously undermanned, and must always be on guard. In contrast, most of Israel safe from such kidnapping tactics and the military enjoys short supply lines, an abundance of manpower, a comfortable superiority of forces, and enormous support from most of the public. Put succinctly, the potential hostages far outnumber hostiles in areas of Israel behind the security fences, and can be well protected and kept track of.

The Israeli public is much more used to coping with these situations than other Western populations
Granted, Israel also tends to put a higher value on each individual life and body, but the public is no longer shocked by such acts, just angered. I have only sympathy for the Shalit and Asheri families, and the Israeli public has shown signs of wanting all of this incessant death to end... but in the end, Israelis are awfully strong at dealing with this kind of trauma. I think the public would put trust in a military solution (as they did back in '94 with Nachshon Waxman)... and if it fails, they will coldly agree to a significant military intervention to seriously damage the terrorists' ability to carry out further attacks.

This is a public that supported 18 years of fighting in Lebanon to eliminate Katyusha attacks on Kiryat Shmonah. True, they got sick of the hemhorraging of soldiers' lives by the end, but they had a remarkable tolerance for trusting in military solutions rather than appeasement in response to attacks. Since Lebanon, the IDF has learned; now, they have limited objectives that can be carried out in weeks to months in Gaza (as they did back in 2002 in the WB), and seriously damage the terrorist base of operations.

Essentially, the Palestinians are likely to get absolutely nothing for their efforts... except overwhelming Israeli public support for military intervention (which the IDF did not have prior to these attacks).

The Palestinians are about to learn just how stupid their move was
Israel is working with tactics that steadily increase the pressure on Hamas and the PA to shape up, or be destroyed. For the first time, Israel has been talking seriously about wholesale assassination of most of the PA/PLC leadership. They've begun a slow escalation of the invasion in Gaza - a invasion that we all know will go very poorly for the oh-so-brave Palestinian fighters in the streets. Hamas political leaders are being arrested, weapons shops and training camps have come under fire, etc. This is a game of chicken, and Israel is not planning on losing. In an all-out military engagement, there is no question about who will be the victors. It may be a costly victory for Israel, but they will win if they decide on a course of military action.

They're more than happy to use this as a pretext to utterly destroy the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, while toppling the Hamas government... and the panicky sounds we're hearing from the PA suggests they're beginning to believe Israel.

Put simply, the Iraqi paradigm of kidnapping doesn't pay... at least not in Israel, it doesn't.